Mujtaba Ayub

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Market Entry, Strategy

Should we enter this market?

New Game Segment: Using Human + Signals Intelligence in Tandem to Evaluate Market Entry

Integrating research approaches for a fuller picture of reality |Combining Human & Signals Intelligence

Riot Games

Trading-card-games segment entry analysis combining signals intelligence with human intelligence. On the left, a fanned set of trading cards over a market-sizing bar build. On the right, two intelligence streams, signals and human, converge into a single go or no-go decision. TCG segment market sizing Signals Intelligence sizing · scenarios · models Human Intelligence manager interviews no-go at this time defensible decision

The problem

A category-entry question with real capital behind it, and no structured basis to say yes or no beyond enthusiasm.

The approach

Built the case from the ground up: consumer behaviour modelling, competitive intelligence and framework-building, and financial and scenario modelling across entry paths.

Combined the signals-intelligence approach above with interviews of TCG segment managers in adjacent Riot territories, gaining crucial insights into supply-chain feasibility, the dynamics and seasonality of the hobbies-and-games retail market, and printer and publisher quirks, allowing the APAC executive leadership to make decisions without any critical blindspots.

What it revealed

Turned an open debate into a decision with a defensible basis. While the signals intelligence was promising on market potential, the human intelligence from those managing the category elsewhere raised certain red flags (high printer margins, the expectation of cyclical content refreshes and periodic booster packs) that proved market entry was unfeasible for Riot APAC at that point.

Under the hood

TAM sizing · scenario modelling · financial modelling · signals + human intelligence integration